Two weeks ago we wrote about Oracle serving a force majeure notice on its 2.45GW Stargate campus after a gas pipeline and an air permit slipped. That was one site. The same permit risk is now policy in two places where UK firms are chasing data-centre work.
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott directed the state's environmental regulator, TCEQ, on 21 September to issue no permits sought by data-centre projects until ERCOT and the Texas Water Development Board finish their audits. In Scotland, MSPs voted on 16 September against a formal moratorium, then passed amendments which mean no planning decision will be taken on any data centre above 50MW until national guidance is published. Nobody in Edinburgh calls it a moratorium. Decisions are parked all the same.
For contractors and consultants pricing this pipeline, the schedule risk has moved. The capital is still there. Permits and grid access now decide when a site starts.
Texas: from a letter to a full stop
The Texas story starts with a queue. At the end of 2024, ERCOT had 63GW of large new customers waiting to connect. By June that figure was 474GW, more than five times the grid's record peak demand, about 90% of it data centres. Those figures come from Ryan McEntush of a16z, whose 7 October piece also explains the growth: developers file the same project across several sites, many have no customer yet, and planners cannot tell which schemes are real.
Abbott responded in stages. On 3 August he ordered an audit of every data centre in the queue, and ERCOT paused switch-on approvals for loads of 75MW or more, including, McEntush notes, 17 that had finished every other step, pending the audit's December report. The 21 September TCEQ directive then widened the pause from grid connections to environmental permits. On Troutman Pepper Locke's reading, it could reach air permits for 'island mode' sites designed to avoid ERCOT altogether. Its only fixed date is 19 October, when TCEQ reports back to the governor.
I don't like that it makes a developer that has funded its first phase, even one bringing its own power, wait like a speculator. Texas should narrow it now by exempting generators permitted only for emergencies and projects that have funded their first phase.
Scotland: no moratorium, no decisions
Holyrood's version is quieter and arguably tighter. The Scottish Greens used an opposition debate on 16 September to call for a moratorium on data centres over 50MW. The SNP, Labour and the Conservatives declined to back it, and two amendments passed instead. The Labour text, as DCD reports it, asks ministers to report back on national planning guidance by the end of the year, publish it within 12 months, and make no planning or consenting decisions on such applications until then.
We do not agree that there should be a moratorium. That is not necessary, it's not appropriate, and it would send the wrong message to anyone looking to invest in Scotland.
The same day, her government published a direction making an Environmental Impact Assessment mandatory for every data centre over 50MW, on top of an earlier one requiring councils to notify ministers of every data-centre application within seven days of validation. Scotland has banned nothing, but ministers now see every scheme, each carries a full EIA, and the decisions wait.
Chapelcross is the first test
Into that gap, CX Tech lodged an application for Planning Permission in Principle with Dumfries and Galloway Council for a £16.5bn, 1GW campus at Chapelcross, the former nuclear site near Annan: eight buildings totalling 162,000 m² on 55 hectares, an on-site substation, and construction from 2027 to 2035 if consent lands this year.
A CX Tech spokesperson told STV the build would support 750 construction jobs and 450 permanent direct jobs. Graeme Anderson, chief executive of CX Tech, told DCD the company is "not designing this around a single operator or a single point in the market cycle".
Opposition gathered quickly. Holyrood reported on 7 October that more than 2,000 objections had been lodged in four days through a Greens portal, and South Scotland MSP Laura Moodie, of the Scottish Greens, wants the scheme refused.
The site at Chapelcross should be the best place to put a data centre by utilising a decommissioned brownfield site. But the proposal which has been lodged is reckless and endangers our energy supply and natural environment.
Even the scheme's loudest critic accepts the location. The fight is over scale, grid impact and timing, and the parliament has already settled the timing: a PPiP for a scheme well over 50MW will not be decided until the guidance is out, whatever Dumfries and Galloway's planners make of it.
Takeaway
The headline forecasts have barely moved. Reuters reported on 5 October that Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 US capacity forecast by 5GW to 64GW while cutting 2027 by 5GW to 90GW. The capacity is still coming, just not in the order anyone programmed.
Operators have noticed: Matt Garman, chief executive of AWS, wrote on 2 October that "right now there are over 100 data centre moratoriums being considered across the country".
For UK firms bidding data-centre work, the lesson is the one we drew from Oracle. The client's permit and grid milestones are the critical path, and two governments have now said so in writing.
Put the EIA, the ministerial notification window and the Scottish guidance on the programme as named client-side milestones, with dates and owners.
Where a scheme depends on on-site generation, check whether the permit for that generation sits inside any freeze. In Texas, Troutman's advice is that it might.
Ask at tender who carries time and cost if a planning decision is deferred by policy rather than refused on merit.
Diarise TCEQ's report on 19 October, ERCOT's audit report in December and the Scottish guidance before the end of the year.
We will cover the Scottish guidance when it is published and what it means for Chapelcross and the other 50MW-plus schemes waiting behind it. If you price or programme data-centre work, the Project Flux newsletter is where that lands first.
Links and Stuff
All content reflects our personal views and is not intended as professional advice or to represent any organisation.
